With Dylan Crews, Yohandy Morales, and Travis Sykora already in tow, CJ Abrams seemingly coming into his own, and a series of new prospects set to join the farm system in deadline trades, July 2023 could quietly (or not-so-quietly) go down as one of the more important months in the history of the Washington Nationals franchise.
While much of the foundational work for the newest iteration of the team was laid through trades of franchise cornerstones in 2021 and 2022, many of the developments that ultimately get the organization into position to compete in the future have occurred and will continue to occur this July.
The Nationals are no longer lacking in high-end talent, thanks to the selection of Crews, ascension of James Wood and Brady House, and the 2022 selection of Elijah Green. The team’s Pipeline Top 30 page looks wildly different than just a year ago. But where the Top 30 is still lacking is toward the bottom: unlike other top farm systems, the Nationals lack prospects in the 20-30 range who also feel like threats to potentially become not just big league depth, but genuine contributors to the next generation of contending teams.
With as many as nine players realistically in play to be on the move in the next few days (and more if the team can find takers for Dom Smith or Corey Dickerson), this week provides the perfect opportunity to round out that list into something far more imposing. Let’s take a look at roughly what to expect in the way of return
Potential Returns for Top Nationals Trade Candidates:
Lane Thomas: 2-3 Top 30 Prospect
Jeimer Candelario: 1-3 Top 30 Prospects (same caveat as Thomas)
Kyle Finnegan: 1-2 Top 30 Prospects
Joey Meneses: 2 Top 30 Prospects
Trevor Williams: 1 Top 30 Prospect
Patrick Corbin: 1 Top 30 Prospect
Carl Edwards Jr: 1 Top 30 Prospect
Jordan Weems: 1 Top 30 Prospect
Ildemaro Vargas: 1 Top 30 Prospect
Haul: 11-15 Top 30 Prospects
Now, will every one of these players actually make it into the Nationals’ Top 30? No. And will every single one of these players get traded? Probably not.
Another factor (and part of why Candelario and Thomas both have ranges) is whether Mike Rizzo opts to focus more on the quality of an individual player in the return or targets the best overall collection of players. For example, do the Nationals package Thomas and Candelario to New York to target a name like Spencer Jones or Chase Hampton as the key piece coming backj? Or do they trade them separately and focus on adding 2-3 names for each one, with no one player carrying as much flash as one of the aforementioned names? Both approaches have their merits, but each would impact the farm system in a different way.
So, conservatively, let’s say the Nationals add 8 new players to their Top 30 over the next several days.
Suddenly, names like Brenner Cox, Andy Acevedo, and Gerardo Carrillo actually start to slide into their proper place in the organization: players with the raw ability to ultimately become impact players at their respective roles, but all currently lacking the production to be considered amongst the team’s most promising names. Every organization has these types of players, but what separates the best organizations is being able to have these players as supplementary “flyers” rather than pieces the team is depending on to “hit.”
Through practically the entirety of the Nationals’ 15-year history, this would be the first time that not every prospect with some whiff of potential has to be thrown on their Top 30 list due to lack of other options.
So sit tight. It’s never fun to lose players like Thomas or Candelario, but it’s going to be an exciting and important week for the Nationals’ future.