The Pick: Dylan Crews - OF, LSU

Analysis: There’s both not much to say and plenty to say about the Nationals’ selection of Dylan Crews with the second overall pick.

On the one hand, it’s Dylan Crews. He’s a Golden Spikes award winner, a National Champion, a player who evidently preferred to land with the Nationals than the Pirates, and an all-around great guy. In that sense, the pick speaks for itself. Mike Rizzo nailed it.

But there’s more to say than that. Scouts have consistently said that high school outfielders Max Clark and Walker Jenkins have the highest ceilings of any position player in this class. Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford also sat higher on some draft boards due to his greater perceived power potential. In light of that, what makes Crews the right pick?

Context is everything.

A simple scan of the Nats’ farm system shows a lot of ceiling but not a lot of “floor guys.” Of Washington’s Top 10 position player prospects (via MLB Pipeline), only James Wood and Robert Hassell are currently above High A. And of those 10 prospects, all 10 were originally either international free agents or drafted out of high school. Not a single player played collegiately, let alone played collegiately in an elite conference like the SEC.

That’s not to say any one player won’t pan out, but there’s a very high collective risk factor in the makeup of Washington’s position player mix.

Dylan Crews is the opposite of all of that.

Crews doesn’t have the highest projected ceiling in the 2023 Draft Class. But he comfortably has the highest projected floor. Defensively, Crews’ arm profiles at any spot, and scouts believe he could potentially stick in center field in the big leagues. At the plate, the national champion has elite bat speed and approach that produces deep counts and few strikeouts. While no prospect is ever a sure thing, he’s as “safe” a prospect as you could possibly acquire.

The Nationals desperately needed a high-end prospect with this kind of profile, and even after seemingly “losing out” to the Pirates in the draft lottery, still managed to get exactly what they needed.

Let’s quickly address the Scott Boras thing, too:

All things being equal, Crews having Scott Boras as an agent obviously doesn’t exactly do the Nationals any favors. They will reportedly go overslot to sign Crews, meaning the team will have to hunt for some savings (and likely take comparably lesser talent) in the later rounds of the draft.

But it’s hard to avoid Scott Boras altogether if you’re going to build a competitive baseball team. So as long as the Nationals avoid their old ways of actively attempting to “partner” with and court Boras, acquiring some of his clients is just the cost of doing business.

It’s also worth noting that Boras is 70 years old. By the time Crews is a free agent, it’s quite possible he could decide to retire from representing players. But even in the worst case scenario where Crews becomes a star then heads to free agency, six years of stardom is hardly a bad outcome from a Top-2 pick.

Think about it this way: If you were a contending team, would you trade one elite prospect to acquire 6 years of control from a superstar? Ask AJ Preller and the Padres if that’s a good price.

In short, the Nationals nailed it with Dylan Crews.

Grade: A+