Nationals Offseason Really Hasn't Been So Bad

A recent Fangraphs article had some strong words for how the Nationals have handled business this offseason.

Here’s the link to the full story, but the headline really says it all:

“Let’s Poke the Nationals With a Stick to See if They’re Still Alive.”

The premise certainly makes sense: Yesterday’s signing of Joey Gallo marked the first major league transaction by Washington since the minor December additions of Nick Senzel and Dylan Floro.

But for where the Nationals are at, what exactly was the expectation this offseason? Sure, there were some opportunities to upgrade the 2024 roster. But there haven’t exactly been that many contracts handed out that made sense for this club as it looks more seriously towards 2025 and beyond.

As great as Jeimer Candelario was in 2023, the Nationals have no reason to be committing $15M to him for the 2026 season. And with Cincinnati far more poised to compete in the short-term, it’s also reality that a similar contract offer from the Nationals may not have even won Candelario over.

Brady House, Yohandy Morales, and Trey Lipscomb all appear in line to be demanding big-league looks by early 2025 at the latest, and with next year’s free agent class including names like Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, and Ha-Seong Kim, there will be plenty of other bats of equal or better quality if Washington still wants to make a splash at a corner spot.

If 2024 was a critical season in the thick of a winning window, Candelario would’ve made sense as a win-now move. But a three-year deal at that dollar amount is one the Nationals can live without.

The same goes for Seth Lugo, who inked an identical deal with the Kansas City Royals. While Lugo performed well in 26 starts for San Diego in 2023, it was the first time he’d logged even one start since the 2020 season, and he’ll be 34 on Opening Day. The AL Central was a division that it felt like no one was serious about winning in 2023 - it’s wide open for the taking, even by a Royals team whose offseason splashes were Lugo and Michael Wacha.

The same cannot be said for the Nationals, who are staring up at the Braves and Phillies, along with a Marlins team that won 84 games and a Mets organization with more money than God.

With that context in mind, is gambling $15M a season on a 35- and 36-year-old Seth Lugo really the kind of risk the Nationals should be taking on for their 2025 and 2026 rosters?

He’d unquestionably be an upgrade over Trevor Williams or Patrick Corbin in the short-run. But you can do a lot better with $30M in payroll than Jeimer Candelario plus Seth Lugo if you’re a team about to open a new competitive window. It will take multiple “big boy moves” to jump back into the thick of the NL East.

Sure, a pitcher like Aaron Nola or Sonny Gray would’ve obviously made sense. But if the Nationals are planning a splashy signing for their rotation, it objectively makes more sense to make that move next winter. Had they gotten out in front of the need, obviously it would’ve improved the 2024 team and taken something off next offseason’s to-do list.

But it also would’ve put the 2025 rotation at more risk. Waiting until next offseason also allows the team to add a comparably younger pitcher with 1-2 more prime seasons to give towards a winning window.

Had they committed $20-$30 million a year to a pitcher, and the pitcher proceed to tear a UCL during 2024, the team has to put $20+ million on the shelf for 2025 when being competitive truly starts to matter. While pitchers are always a health risk, waiting until next offseason at least allows the Nationals to allocate their dollars toward an arm that they know will enter 2025 Spring Training healthy.

The Lerner family selling the Nationals may be the biggest “will they, won’t they” since Ross and Rachel. But the lack of spending (while very noticeable for such a struggling ball club) is not a Nationals problem. It’s an industry problem. Even teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, and Rangers have either maintained or slashed payroll this offseason, which is part of why so many big-name free agents remain on the market in the first place.

That doesn’t excuse the Lerner family, but the team’s conservative free agency approach is consistent with what we’ve seen across baseball this year from teams not named the Dodgers and Yankees.

In an ideal world, the Nationals would’ve entered free agency with guns blazing, added Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler to an otherwise manageable payroll and kicked off their new competitive window in the thick of the Wild Card race in 2024. But with that clearly not in the cards, Mike Rizzo has played the cards he’s been dealt about as well as one could expect.

Older free agents like Justin Turner, JD Martinez and Hyun-Jin Ryu will likely wait out the slow-moving market in search of opportunities with clubs that expect to be more competitive this coming season. Should those opportunities not arise, there’s no reason they can’t still work out agreements to come to D.C. In the meantime, Rizzo has ensured that multiple areas of need have at least some reinforcements, without committing such aggressive resources that it would prevent adding a Turner, Martinez, Ryu, or Soler to the mix.

The Nationals offseason should not be done. Lets’ be clear: They need another pitcher, and they can stand to add another bat, even if it’s more of a flier like the Marlins just took on Trey Mancini.

But in a market that’s largely moved at a snail’s pace, it’s still too early to call the offseason a failure. Washington has added bodies and upside at positions of need while leaving more than enough flexibility to tactfully jump in the mix on players who fail to find the offers they’d originally hoped for.

And perhaps most importantly, they’ve avoided jumping the gun and using serious dollars on slightly-above-average players for the sake of short-term gains, leaving themselves in strong position to make multiple impact additions in the next 1-2 offseasons. For better and worse, things are right on schedule.