What Might The Nationals Receive in a Jeimer Candelario Trade?

With the trade deadline just days away, Mike Rizzo’s phone is as busy as ever, particularly because the Nationals feature one of this deadline’s most prominent trade candidates in Jeimer Candelario.

The offseason flyer has been one of the league’s best third basemen in 2023, flashing strong defense at the hot corner and clubbing 29 doubles, good for third in the league.

Unlike other Nationals trade candidates like Lane Thomas and Kyle Finnegan, Candelario is on an expiring contract, making him all-but guaranteed to be traded (unless an extension were to come together in the coming days, which is unlikely).

So what might the Nationals receive in a Candelario trade? Let’s take a look at potential packages from some top suitors:

The Angels were not a team I’d previously thought to be a major suitor for Candelario, but with recent reports linking the Angels and Nationals in trade discussions around the All-Star snub, the scenario has to be considered. Let’s take a look at the potential return:

Jo Adell may no longer be a Top-3 prospect in baseball. But there’s also a reason he once was.

Even with an aggressively inconsistent showing through his first 166 big-league games, Adell has shown that his power can translate to the majors. And that’s the thing: he’s still only played a hair more than a season’s worth of major-league baseball.

While the Nationals don’t necessarily need more outfielders, the reality is that the Angels lack something more appealing than their former top prospect, and the thought of an outfield with James Wood, Dylan Crews, and an in-form Adell is incredibly tantalizing.

And as an aside, is there any player in baseball that might actually benefit from Darnell Coles’ fixation with contact more than Jo Adell?

Jack Kochanowicz is a 22-year-old right-hander that stands a towering 6”7, 228lbs. He and James Wood could certainly team up to help the Nationals ultimately have the tallest team in baseball, but there’s more to like about the Pennsylvania native than just his frame.

After struggling against A-ball pitching last season, Kochanowicz seemed to turn a corner this year when he dominated High-A hitters to the tune of a 1.52 ERA through 5 starts. The Angels, who’ve been overly aggressive with pitching prospects across the board this year, took that five-game sample as proof the former third-rounder was ready for AA, which he’s shown he’s clearly not. The Nationals, with no sights on competing down the stretch this season, could afford to be more patient with Kochanowicz and send him back to High-A to let him continue his development at a healthy pace.

Jake Eder is a 24-year-old left-hander that’s currently getting his feet wet again after recovering from 2021 shoulder surgery. While regaining the control is still a work in progress (19 walks in 33.2 innings), the stuff is as strong as ever (10.2 K/9).

Prior to his injury, Eder had posted a 1.77 ERA across 15 AA starts in 2021 with impressive strikeout and walk totals, so he should be ready for AAA once he’s comfortably back in the saddle. That would put him in line to make his debut in early 2024, if not sooner, joining Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge as potential factors in the rotation in the near future.

Monteverde is another near-bigs lefty that’s posted impressive AA numbers and seems ready to be battle-tested at AAA. While there obviously wouldn’t be room for all of Cavalli, Rutledge, Eder, Monteverde, Josiah Gray, and MacKenzie Gore in the rotation, the odds that all six are viable options at any given time (due to health and/or not panning out) are not high. Monteverde profiles more as a back-end starter (while Eder has mid-rotation upside), but few teams can appreciate the need to have a full slate of reliable starting pitchers than the Nationals.

There are few (reasonable) trade targets that make more sense for the Nationals at the trade deadline than Will Warren. The 6’2 righty is knocking on the door of the big leagues, with four plus pitches that would make him an exciting addition to the Washington rotation. Warren can get his fastball up to 97 MPH, and also features a 3000 RPM slider that has continued to become more of a weapon as he’s developed. He would be a candidate to receive a call-up before season’s end, and would certainly compete for an Opening Day rotation spot in Spring Training if he doesn’t see the majors this year.

Andres Chaparro was thought to be a candidate for the Nationals’ Rule 5 selection over the offseason, and his 2023 season has been further proof of why he generated that kind of excitement. Getting his first taste of AAA this season, the 24-year-old has clubbed 19 home runs with an .822 OPS while striking out less than once a game. He’s also walked 45 times, demonstrating more plate discipline than most minor league mashers. Chaparro could very well receive a call-up and immediately slot into Candelario’s starting third base role, and hits enough that a transition to a 1B/DH role would suit him just fine when Brady House is ready to join the big-league club.

Connor Prielipp was one of the 2022 draft’s most exciting pitching prospects before an injury came along to mute some of the hype. He features an exciting three-pitch mix, including a fastball that touches 95 MPH and a double-plus slider that combine to give him a strong floor as a high-leverage reliever.

Assuming he can continue to develop his seldom-used changeup, there’s a real chance for Prielipp to ultimately develop into a top-three starter in a big-league rotation, even if he’s unlikely to debut until 2025.

Brent Headrick is an older prospect, but at age 25, he’s also shown enough at AAA this season to warrant a call-up before season’s end. Headrick’s stuff is not overwhelming and he profiles as more of a back-end rotation option. But the Nationals lacking much beyond Cavalli and Rutledge when it comes to near-bigs starting pitching, Headrick would be a welcome addition to the mix.

It’s hard to see the Nationals parting with Candelario without getting some pitching back, and in a thin Phillies system, the options are fairly limited beyond Andrew Painter and Mick Abel.

Griff McGarry is the best of the rest, having struck out an impressive 61 batters across 45.2 AA innings this year. His command still needs some work, with walks being a bit of an issue (5.2 BB/9). But even if McGarry can’t stick in the rotation, he profiles as an electric back-end relief option that could even become the Nationals’ next closer.

It’s fun to imagine 6”8 Carlos De La Cruz and 6”7 James Wood in the same outfield. And beyond the gimmick, both can absolutely mash. De La Cruz has torched AA pitching for 18 home runs with an .855 OPS. In many ways, De La Cruz is essentially Jo Adell but a year younger (with a tad less power). De La Cruz is far from a “complete player,” and still needs to work on his plate discipline. But he would instantly become one of the top power bats in the system.

While the Nationals probably don’t need another AA-level outfielder, the lack of high-end Phillies prospects means De La Cruz (or fellow AA outfielder Ethan Wilson) will likely have to be part of a deal if the Nationals opt to send Candelario to Philadelphia.