What Would It Take for the Washington Nationals to Trade Lane Thomas?

It’s that time of year for rebuilding teams. Mike Rizzo has said the Washington Nationals are “open for business.”

In the same sound bite, Rizzo conceded Lane Thomas could potentially be available, on one condition: “if somebody views him the way I view him and the way our staff views him, then we’d have a conversation.”

Especially in a buyer’s market, read that as “get ready to pay up.”

Even with his two-plus seasons of control remaining, Thomas obviously won’t come close to fetching the blockbuster haul the Nationals received last year for Juan Soto (and Josh Bell).

But an All-Star caliber player with three seasons of control, especially in a sellers market, still stands to potentially bring in a substantial haul.

It is still unclear if the Nationals will ultimately trade Thomas in the next week, primarily because it’s unclear if teams will indeed view him the way Rizzo (and Nationals fans) do.

So what might it take to get Rizzo to budge, while still being a realistic and palatable asking price?

There’s not much in the way of true comps out there: Soto also had 2.5 years remaining, but was traded alongside Josh Bell and is also a different caliber player than Thomas.

Kris Bryant (a more revered name at the time than he is presently) was sent from Chicago to San Francisco in 2021 for outfielder Alexander Canario and pitcher Caleb Kilian (then #9 and #30 on the team’s Pipeline Top 30, respectively), but Bryant’s rental status and ability to play third base both make that an ineffective comp as well.

While far from apples-to-apples, the best framework for a deal might actually come from the Reds-Twins swap that sent pitcher Tyler Mahle to Minnesota last summer.

Cincinnati parted with Mahle in exchange for infielder Spencer Steer, pitcher Steve Hajjar, and infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who were Minnesota’s #7, #18, and #23 prospects at the time per MLB Pipeline.

Pitchers tend to demand a higher value than outfielders, but Mahle also had one less year of control (1.5) than Thomas, so those two factors likely offset to make the package relatively comparable. Add in that this year is very much a seller’s market, and perhaps one of the two lower-ranked prospects ends up a little higher on a team’s list in a Thomas deal.

So what could a similar package look like from some of Thomas’s top suitors? Let’s take a look (all player rankings via MLB Pipeline):

With the Yankees, the ask likely starts at Chase Hampton, who Baseball America recently moved to 60th on their Top 100 list. While that could be in play (and would likely see the supplementary pieces of the deal knocked down a notch), a more likely scenario is a deal headlined by Drew Thorpe, a 22-year-old left hander that has found success at High-A in his first pro season. Through 13 starts, Thorpe carries a 2.08 ERA and has struck out 124 batters over his first 99.1 innings.

Clayton Beeter is another intriguing name, and found himself alongside James Wood and Brady House at the MLB Futures Game earlier this month. Much like current Nats prospect Cole Henry, Beeter has managed to limit runs as a starter throughout his minor-league career (2.36 ERA in 16 games between AA and AAA this year), but has yet to show he can go deep into ballgames with consistency. Whether as a rotation option or ultimately in the bullpen (the Nats would surely give him the chance to start at first), Beeter would be in position to potentially join the big-league club as soon as early August, adding another exciting young arm to the major-league mix.

Anthony Hall is a 22-year-old former 4th-round pick that is in the midst of his first full professional season after a single game at rookie ball in 2022. While the Nationals are deep in regards to outfielders, Daylen Lile has climbed to High-A, leaving little outside the currently-injured Elijah Green in regards to exciting outfielders at Fredericksburg. The Nationals will presumably lean toward more advanced prospects in deals, but they should also be looking to supplement the lower minors with at least one piece of any deal (assuming 3+ players are involved).

Brooks Lee and Emmanuel Rodriguez are both almost certainly off limits in Minnesota, which makes them an interesting fit as a trade partner because the system lacks much in the way of other high-end talent. Without one of the big two involved, any deal for Thomas would certainly feature at least one of Marco Raya, Connor Prielipp or Matt Canterino, arguably the three best pitchers in the Twins system.

In this case, we start with Raya, a 20-year old right-hander that is already impressing in AA. While Raya is unlikely to debut by the end of the season, he would immediately join Jackson Rutledge, Cade Cavalli, and even potentially Jake Bennett as arms that should be threatening to help bolster the Nationals rotation between now and the end of 2024. The fact he is still just 20 years old means there’s possibly still additional projection on his 6”1, 170lb frame, but there’s also little in the way of growth needed in Raya’s actual game: He offers four plus pitches and already tops out at 97 MPH. The key will be taking the gloves off him with the innings at some point (he’s thrown just 43.1 in 14 combined starts this year) and allowing him to start going deeper into ballgames.

Schobel is another AA talent that could make Harrisburg even more fun to watch. He can handle either position in the middle infield, and offers some solid pop with the bat (14 home runs in 2023) despite his relatively small stature (5”9, 170lbs). The Nationals seem to have their shortstop of the future in CJ Abrams, but Luis Garcia has yet to do enough to firmly lay hold of the long-term job at second base. And regardless of Garcia’s status, the system lacks much middle infield depth beyond Jake Alu and Trey Lipscomb, who has been pushed to second base with Brady House’s promotion to Harrisburg.

Cory Lewis, also 22, is making the Twins look smart for selecting him in the 9th round of the 2022 draft. After starting the year at A-ball, his already-impressive numbers have actually improved since making the jump to High-A. The three main things to like about Lewis are high strikeout totals, solid walk rates, and the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark (5 home runs allowed through his first 73.1 innings). He likely won’t debut in the big-leagues until mid-late 2025, but would help bolster the second layer of pitching depth behind the group of arms currently in and near the big leagues.

Much like with the Yankees and Chase Hampton, Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski is likely the first name (other than Jackson Chourio) out of Mike Rizzo’s mouth if the Brewers come calling. Assuming that’s DOA, the Nationals could target a pair of names nearing their big-league debuts in Tyler Black and Robert Gasser.

What Tyler Black lacks in a clear position, he makes up for with his bat and his speed. Having logged time at third base, second base, and multiple outfield spots for AA Biloxi so far in 2023, Black’s also clobbered 14 home runs and swiped 44 bags, while hitting .290 with a .979 OPS. While he’d only add to the current third-base log jam at AA Harrisburg, it’s also possible the Nationals would send Black straight to AAA (or even have him skip it all together). In many ways, Black is the perfect fit for a team in the Nationals’ position: his bat seems big-league ready (or close to it), and his positional flexibility will allow the team to grant opportunities to other positionally-limited players while still getting his bat in the lineup.

Robert Gasser is a 6”0, 192lb lefty with a four-pitch mix. His numbers don’t jump off the page, and realistically profiles more as a back-end starter, but he has a high floor and has survived hitter-friendly Nashville without being tattooed the way other prominent pitching prospects across baseball have as they reach AAA (4.18 ERA in 17 starts/18 appearances).

Gasser should make his big-league debut by the end of the season and give the Nationals a third young starter in the rotation entering 2024.

Alek Thomas’s uninspiring stat line tells the story that he can’t really hit. In reality, he’s currently a strong-side platoon option that mashes right-handers and needs to learn how to handle left-handed pitching. If he can become even somewhat tenable against lefties, he’ll quickly start looking more like the player that was once high on Top 100 prospect lists across the industry.

At just 23 years old, Thomas has plenty of time to figure things out (he just surpassed a year’s worth of MLB games in the last month), and would immediately give the Nationals a replacement for the departed older Thomas.

Walston has a strong 6”5 frame and is already knocking on the door of the big leagues at age 22. While he’s put up uninspiring numbers this year, he’s actually performed better at hitter-friendly AAA Reno than in 21 starts at AA last season.

Walston will likely wind up as a 3rd or 4th starter, but has shown enough flashes of upside to dream on more if he can rediscover the strikeout stuff he showed in the earlier stages of his career.

Justin Foscue profiles as something of a Brendan Donovan type - a player that technically probably deserves a “utility” label because he lacks a true defensive home, but has a strong enough bat that warrants finding him a spot in the lineup every day. Much like Milwaukee’s Tyler Black, Foscue is the perfect player for a team trying to start emerging from a rebuild: near the big leagues, with enough places to play (1B, 2B, LF, DH) that he can be moved around as other prospects make their way to the big leagues. Foscue doesn’t profile to be a star, but would be another solid piece as the Nationals look to continue rounding out their future lineup.

Mitch Bratt is a 6”1 left-hander that is already striking out batters left and right at High A. The Rangers are being careful with the young arm’s innings, as he’s averaged just over 4 innings per start. But Bratt already has plus control (2.6 BB/9) and an arrow pointing up in a big way. He should be in the mix to join the big-league rotation in late 2025.

Abimelec Ortiz is one of the faster-rising prospects in baseball, with 16 home runs and a 1.096 OPS in his first 44 games at High A. In addition to being an inherently talented bat, Ortiz would fill a need in a farm system that currently lacks much in the way of first base options beyond recently-drafted YoYo Morales.